Coronavirus hospitalizations have declined in many states. It is another indication that social distancing has been effective at curbing the spread of virus.
Hospitalizations are a vital metric to watch and gauge the severity of the outbreak, especially because testing shortfalls have skewed some of the other measurements. Those numbers are not falling everywhere, and any approach to reopening needs have to be carefully managed in order to prevent them from spiking again.
Hospitals have to report this data to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on a daily basis, but real time numbers aren’t available yet, due to the failures of the country’s electronic health data infrastructure.
While a couple of researchers, which includes those at the University of Minnesota’s Carlson School of Management and the COVID Tracking Project are tabulating COVID-19 hospitalization from state health departments.
Data reveals that among the 40 states that are consistently providing data, COVID-19 hospitalizations are taking up a smaller percentage of all occupied hospital beds in many states, which includes hotspots like Connecticut, New Jersey and New York.
Not more than 25% of the hospital beds in any state are occupied by coronavirus patients.
Though hospitalization rates are not dropping but are infact rising in several states, including Illinois, Minnesota, New Mexico and Virginia.
The aggregate hospitalization rate of 14 states that are monitored by the CDC are also appearing to be still cresting.
Hospitalizations are a lagging indicator of infection since it takes some time for people to feel sick and then seek intensive care. Thus, the coming weeks will give a clearer picture if some states and hospitals are getting hammered again.
Even in states like Vermont where the hospitalizations have been very few and aggressive social distancing protocols are maintained, healthcare officials are treading carefully about reopening businesses and restarting elective medical procedures.
Mitigation bought the time that was necessary said Stephen Leffler, an ER doctor and president of the University of Vermont Medical Center, which has two of the state’s five COVID-19 inpatients at present.
He mentioned that they are now planning for the next phase, which is for COVID to be a part of the normal.